Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 8-T.Masthay punts 38 yards to CHI 27, Center-61-B.Goode. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 34 for 7 yards (30-J.Kuhn). PENALTY on CHI-52-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.79 EP
70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model