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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Thursday 2015-11-26 · 20:30 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

CHI
43.8%
GB
56.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Wind 19 mph
  • GB defense: -0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.124 vs Jay Cutler (CHI) +0.112 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20
–
GB 23
Projected margin: GB by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CHI

Martellus Bennett TE Out Ribs
Ka'Deem Carey RB Out Concussion
Eddie Royal WR Out Knee
Antrel Rolle S Questionable Knee
Matt Forte RB Questionable Knee
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Groin
Sherrod Martin S Questionable Neck
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee
LaRoy Reynolds LB Questionable Knee

GB

Jared Abbrederis WR Out Rib
Ty Montgomery WR Out Ankle
Corey Linsley C Questionable Ankle
Micah Hyde S Questionable Hip
Mike Pennel DE Questionable Quadricep
Damarious Randall CB Questionable Hamstring
Davante Adams WR Probable Ankle
Morgan Burnett S Probable Ankle
Jayrone Elliott LB Probable Ankle
Eddie Lacy RB Probable Ankle
Aaron Ripkowski RB Probable Ankle
David Bakhtiari T Probable Knee
Bryan Bulaga T Probable Knee
T.J. Lang G Probable Shoulder
Clay Matthews LB Probable Ankle
Josh Sitton G Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 17
–
GB 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:28 TD GB (5:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 27-E.Lacy for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CHI 0 – GB 6
  • Q2 06:08 TD CHI (6:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 86-Z.Miller for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-J.Elliott]. CHI 6 – GB 7
  • Q2 02:03 FG GB (2:03) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. CHI 7 – GB 10
  • Q2 00:34 TD CHI (:34) 74-J.Bushrod and 98-M.Unrein reported in as eligible. 33-J.Langford left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – GB 10
  • Q2 00:04 FG GB (:04) 2-M.Crosby 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. CHI 14 – GB 13
  • Q4 12:18 FG CHI (12:18) 9-R.Gould 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 17 – GB 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 20%

    (12:53) (No Huddle) 27-E.Lacy right end to CHI 48 for no gain (58-J.Anderson, 92-P.McPhee).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 29%

    (11:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to GB 16, Center-43-T.Gafford, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 11 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 22%

    (8:36) 8-T.Masthay punts 37 yards to CHI 10, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to 50, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:17) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to GB 38, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-36-S.Martin.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:20) 8-T.Masthay punts 38 yards to CHI 27, Center-61-B.Goode. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 34 for 7 yards (30-J.Kuhn). PENALTY on CHI-52-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 27.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:56) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to GB 24, Center-43-T.Gafford. 18-R.Cobb MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 19. 18-R.Cobb to GB 19 for no gain (11-J.Bellamy).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:01) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to CHI 27, Center-61-B.Goode. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 34 for 7 yards (39-D.Goodson).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (11:39) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to GB 12, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-11-J.Bellamy.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (2:03) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (12:18) 9-R.Gould 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 14 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:30) 8-T.Masthay punts 27 yards to CHI 35, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 19 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 12%

    (4:18) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to GB 10, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-11-J.Bellamy.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 24%

    (2:53) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-43-T.Gafford, Touchback.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams.