Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 59

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to GB 24, Center-43-T.Gafford. 18-R.Cobb MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 19. 18-R.Cobb to GB 19 for no gain (11-J.Bellamy).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model