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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to CHI 27, Center-61-B.Goode. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 34 for 7 yards (39-D.Goodson).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.36 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP