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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 53

Chicago Bears 17 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to GB 10, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-11-J.Bellamy.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.11 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 12% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 88% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model