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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 8

Green Bay Packers 13 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.83 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 8, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP