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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 8-T.Masthay punts 37 yards to CHI 10, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.85 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model