Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 75

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

(4:17) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to GB 38, Center-43-T.Gafford, downed by CHI-36-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model