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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 13

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 6-S.Graham 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.90 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model