Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.121 vs Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) -0.030 EPA/dropback
- ATL offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- MIN offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- ATL defense: -0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
MIN
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 03:46 TD MIN (3:46) 74-A.Shepherd reported in as eligible. 28-A.Peterson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – ATL 0
- Q2 06:18 FG ATL (6:18) 6-S.Graham 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. MIN 7 – ATL 3
- Q3 01:53 FG MIN (1:53) 3-B.Walsh 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 10 – ATL 3
- Q4 06:29 FG MIN (6:29) 3-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 13 – ATL 3
- Q4 04:23 TD MIN (4:23) 28-A.Peterson left end for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 19 – ATL 3
- Q4 01:33 TD ATL (1:33) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 15-N.Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – ATL 9
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EPp(convert) 70%
(12:38) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to ATL 17, Center-47-K.McDermott. 14-E.Weems to ATL 27 for 10 yards (59-J.Trusnik).
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Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EPp(convert) 71%
(10:23) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to MIN 19, Center-47-J.Harris. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 22 for 3 yards (27-R.Therezie).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%
(6:18) 6-S.Graham 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(3:58) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to ATL 8, Center-47-K.McDermott. 14-E.Weems to ATL 15 for 7 yards (59-J.Trusnik).
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Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 96%
(1:53) 3-B.Walsh 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 19 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(15:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to MIN 22, Center-47-J.Harris. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 25 for 3 yards (14-E.Weems). PENALTY on MIN-59-J.Trusnik, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 22.
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Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%
(6:29) 3-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 52 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 26%
(4:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 40 for -8 yards (55-A.Barr). FUMBLES (55-A.Barr) [55-A.Barr], recovered by ATL-73-R.Schraeder at ATL 43. Ball spotted back at ATL 40 by fourth-down fumble rule.