Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(3:58) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to ATL 8, Center-47-K.McDermott. 14-E.Weems to ATL 15 for 7 yards (59-J.Trusnik).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.08 EP
56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model