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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to ATL 17, Center-47-K.McDermott. 14-E.Weems to ATL 27 for 10 yards (59-J.Trusnik).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.78 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 19, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP