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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 11

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 3-B.Walsh 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.34 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP