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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to MIN 22, Center-47-J.Harris. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 25 for 3 yards (14-E.Weems). PENALTY on MIN-59-J.Trusnik, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.29 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model