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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 3-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model