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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 54

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to WAS 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 15 for 8 yards (21-L.Collins).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model