Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYG offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- NYG on 7 more days rest than WAS
- WAS defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- WAS offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- Eli Manning (NYG): +0.158 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
NYG
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 12:28 FG WAS (12:28) 3-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. NYG 0 – WAS 3
- Q2 10:29 TD WAS (10:29) 68-T.Compton reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 11-D.Jackson for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – WAS 9
- Q2 01:50 TD WAS (1:50) 8-K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. QB sneak The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NYG 0 – WAS 16
- Q4 11:41 FG WAS (11:41) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. NYG 0 – WAS 20
- Q4 10:19 TD NYG (10:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 82-R.Randle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – WAS 20
- Q4 05:04 TD NYG (5:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – WAS 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 50%
(10:48) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to NYG 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-20-J.Johnson.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 18 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 66%
(7:07) 3-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-J.Bromley), Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 53%
(4:34) 9-B.Wing punts 38 yards to WAS 1, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris. Washington challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 85%
(12:28) 3-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 15 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(10:41) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to WAS 37, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-43-C.Dahl.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(8:08) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to WAS 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 15 for 8 yards (21-L.Collins).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(7:11) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to NYG 39, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 35%
(5:50) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%
(1:50) 8-K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. QB sneak The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(:53) 9-B.Wing punts 61 yards to WAS 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-94-M.Herzlich.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 35Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 63%
(11:28) 68-T.Compton reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 37, and recovers at NYG 37. 8-K.Cousins to NYG 37 for no gain (90-J.Pierre-Paul).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(5:13) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to NYG 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to NYG 8 for 3 yards (94-P.Smith).
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Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(4:17) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to WAS 17, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-D.Jackson pushed ob at WAS 19 for 2 yards (55-J.Thomas).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(2:36) 5-T.Way punts 60 yards to NYG 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to NYG 20 for 5 yards (19-R.Ross, 57-N.Sundberg).
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Q3 NYG 4th & 20 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(1:46) 9-B.Wing punts 56 yards to WAS 34, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at 50 for 16 yards (94-M.Herzlich).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 93%
(11:41) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 16 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 50%
(10:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 82-R.Randle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EPp(convert) 58%
(7:29) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to NYG 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 23. 17-D.Harris to NYG 23 for no gain (35-D.Phillips).
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Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(5:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 45-W.Tye to WAS 29 for 28 yards (23-D.Hall).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 11 at the 40 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.08 EPp(convert) 28% p(FG) 50%
(:29) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to NYG 0, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at NYG 6 for 6 yards (20-J.Johnson). PENALTY on WAS-93-T.Murphy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 6.