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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 63

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(:53) 9-B.Wing punts 61 yards to WAS 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-94-M.Herzlich.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.67 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model