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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 35

Washington Commanders 17 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 68-T.Compton reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 37, and recovers at NYG 37. 8-K.Cousins to NYG 37 for no gain (90-J.Pierre-Paul).

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.76 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model