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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 55

Washington Commanders 17 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to NYG 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris to NYG 8 for 3 yards (94-P.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.60 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model