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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 15

Washington Commanders 17 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.99 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 15, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model