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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 40

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(10:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 82-R.Randle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.17 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model