4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 56

Washington Commanders 20 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to NYG 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYG 23. 17-D.Harris to NYG 23 for no gain (35-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.23 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP