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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 40

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to NYG 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-20-J.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.85 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP