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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 57

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(5:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 45-W.Tye to WAS 29 for 28 yards (23-D.Hall).

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.87 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 57, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model