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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 39

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 9-B.Wing punts 38 yards to WAS 1, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris. Washington challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.69 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP