Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(14:07) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 60 yards to LV 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-J.Ross pushed ob at LV 38 for 20 yards (28-M.Huff).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.01 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model