4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Ken Whisenhunt
Sunday 2015-11-29 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

OAK
52.8%
TEN
47.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.135 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN on 3 more days rest than LV

Predicted Final Score

OAK 24
–
TEN 23
Projected margin: OAK by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

OAK

Neiron Ball LB Out Knee
Keith McGill CB Out Ankle
Rodney Hudson C Doubtful Ankle
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Knee
Lee Smith TE Probable Wrist
Charles Woodson S Probable Shoulder

TEN

Dexter McCluster RB Out Knee
Al Woods DT Out Ankle
Derrick Morgan LB Questionable Shoulder
Sammie Lee Hill DT Probable Knee
Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Probable Hamstring
Kendall Wright WR Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 24
–
TEN 21

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:58 TD TEN (5:58) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 88-C.Stevens for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 01:40 TD LV (1:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – TEN 6
  • Q2 01:04 FG LV (1:04) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 10 – TEN 6
  • Q3 10:52 TD LV (10:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-S.Roberts for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 16 – TEN 6
  • Q3 06:27 TD TEN (6:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 83-H.Douglas for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-31-N.Thorpe, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. OAK 17 – TEN 12
  • Q4 04:46 TD TEN (4:46) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 45-J.Fowler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 17 – TEN 20
  • Q4 01:27 TD LV (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-S.Roberts for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-K.Klug]. OAK 23 – TEN 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:07) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 60 yards to LV 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-J.Ross pushed ob at LV 38 for 20 yards (28-M.Huff).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:07) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 47 yards to TEN 8, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-31-N.Thorpe.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (11:34) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to LV 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-J.Ross to LV 39 for 13 yards (89-P.Supernaw).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%

    (8:31) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 32 yards to TEN 12, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 83-H.Douglas.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to LV 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-52-S.Johnson.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 61%

    (13:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 41, and recovers at TEN 44. 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 89-A.Cooper.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 15 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 59%

    (9:19) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 29 yards to LV 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 13-J.Ross. PENALTY on LV-31-N.Thorpe, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at LV 8.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (1:04) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 43%

    (:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 82-D.Walker (27-T.Mays).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:42) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 59 yards to TEN 7, Center-59-J.Condo. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 12 for 5 yards (18-A.Holmes).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 60 yards to LV 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-J.Ross to LV 36 for 9 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:02) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 31 yards to TEN 27, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-59-J.Condo.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:56) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to LV 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 13-J.Ross to LV 33 for 7 yards (57-J.Staples; 28-M.Huff). PENALTY on LV-25-D.Hayden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 33.