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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 82-D.Walker (27-T.Mays).

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.59 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model