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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 55

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 47 yards to TEN 8, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-31-N.Thorpe.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.50 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP