Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Tennessee Titans 14

(:42) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 59 yards to TEN 7, Center-59-J.Condo. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 12 for 5 yards (18-A.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.51 EP
60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model