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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 9

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 2-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model