Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LAC defense: +0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- JAX offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- JAX on 3 more days rest than LAC
- LAC offense: -0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.111 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
SD
JAX
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:43 FG JAX (10:43) 2-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. SD 0 – JAX 3
- Q1 04:48 FG JAX (4:48) 2-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. SD 0 – JAX 6
- Q2 14:25 TD LAC (14:25) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 15-D.Inman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 6 – JAX 6
- Q2 07:08 FG JAX (7:08) 2-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. SD 7 – JAX 9
- Q2 01:54 TD LAC (1:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 85-A.Gates for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 13 – JAX 9
- Q2 00:50 TD LAC (:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 85-A.Gates for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 20 – JAX 9
- Q3 10:03 FG JAX (10:03) 2-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. SD 21 – JAX 12
- Q3 01:05 FG LAC (1:05) 2-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. SD 24 – JAX 12
- Q4 11:04 TD JAX (11:04) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 80-J.Thomas for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 24 – JAX 18
- Q4 04:50 TD LAC (4:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 11-S.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 30 – JAX 19
- Q4 01:25 TD JAX (1:25) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 31 – JAX 25
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%
(10:43) 2-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(8:32) 5-M.Scifres punts 43 yards to JAX 14, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 33Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EPp(convert) 68% p(FG) 66%
(4:48) 2-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(3:06) 5-M.Scifres punts 48 yards to JAX 25, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(1:08) 19-B.Anger punts 46 yards to LAC 22, Center-46-C.Tinker. 81-J.Herndon to LAC 37 for 15 yards (52-H.Pullard).
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Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 45%
(10:51) 19-B.Anger punts 27 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(9:19) 5-M.Scifres punts 52 yards to JAX 31, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-R.Greene ran ob at JAX 40 for 9 yards. PENALTY on LAC-25-D.Stuckey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 40.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 8 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%
(7:08) 2-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%
(10:03) 2-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(8:43) 5-M.Scifres punts 50 yards to JAX 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-R.Greene to JAX 32 for 4 yards (16-T.Williams).
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Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(7:45) 19-B.Anger punts 51 yards to LAC 16, Center-46-C.Tinker. 81-J.Herndon ran ob at LAC 34 for 18 yards.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%
(1:05) 2-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 21Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%
(11:04) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 80-J.Thomas for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 53%
(9:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers scrambles right end ran ob at JAX 30 for 8 yards.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 36 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 58%
(3:15) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson to LAC 28 for 8 yards (26-P.Robinson).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 29 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.04 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 75%
(2:10) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 16-D.Robinson to LAC 20 for 9 yards (32-E.Weddle).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 66 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:37) 5-M.Scifres punt is BLOCKED by 52-H.Pullard, Center-47-M.Windt, RECOVERED by JAX-25-P.Thompson at LAC 14. 25-P.Thompson to LAC 14 for no gain (34-D.Brown).