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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 4

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 2-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +3.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.44 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.59 EP
KICK +2.53 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP