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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 10

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 2-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model