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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 78

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 5-M.Scifres punts 50 yards to JAX 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-R.Greene to JAX 32 for 4 yards (16-T.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model