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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 12 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 19-B.Anger punts 51 yards to LAC 16, Center-46-C.Tinker. 81-J.Herndon ran ob at LAC 34 for 18 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model