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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 31

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 15-A.Robinson to LAC 28 for 8 yards (26-P.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.66 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model