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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 33

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 2-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.04 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP