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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 3

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +3.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.88 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 3, worth +0.78 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP