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STL Away

St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2015-11-29 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

STL
20.1%
CIN
79.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.178 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.270 vs Nick Foles (LA) -0.221 EPA/dropback (LA starting Nick Foles in place of Case Keenum)
  • CIN offense: +0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.129 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

STL 18
–
CIN 28
Projected margin: CIN by 10 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

STL

Andrew Donnal T Out Knee
Rob Havenstein T Questionable Calf
Trumaine Johnson CB Questionable Thigh
Robert Quinn DE Questionable Hip
Case Keenum QB Questionable Concussion
Greg Zuerlein K Questionable right Groin

CIN

Darqueze Dennard CB Out Shoulder
Adam Jones CB Questionable Foot
Pat Sims DT Questionable Knee
Vontaze Burfict LB Probable Knee
Andy Dalton QB Probable Groin
Tyler Eifert TE Probable Knee
Marvin Jones WR Probable Hamstring
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Probable Knee
Andre Smith T Probable Thigh
Shawn Williams S Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

STL 7
–
CIN 31

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:23 TD CIN (9:23) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 18-A.Green for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 0 – CIN 6
  • Q2 10:14 FG CIN (10:14) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. STL 0 – CIN 10
  • Q2 08:34 TD LA (8:34) 11-T.Austin right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. {End around} STL 6 – CIN 10
  • Q2 03:34 TD CIN (3:34) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 85-T.Eifert for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 7 – CIN 16
  • Q3 07:07 TD CIN (7:07) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 18-A.Green for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 7 – CIN 23
  • Q3 05:29 TD CIN (5:29) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass short middle intended for 15-B.Marquez INTERCEPTED by 29-L.Hall at LA 19. 29-L.Hall for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. STL 7 – CIN 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:19) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to CIN 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-46-C.Harkey.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 13 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:51) 6-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:29) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to LA 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 37 for 9 yards (36-S.Williams). PENALTY on CIN-36-S.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LA 37.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 30%

    (2:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to CIN 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (10:14) 2-M.Nugent 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to CIN 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 19-B.Tate to CIN 28 for 13 yards (44-J.McQuaide; 53-D.Bates). CIN-59-E.Lamur was injured during the play.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (4:17) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to CIN 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 19-B.Tate to CIN 28 for 3 yards (46-C.Harkey).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:18) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to LA 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Austin to LA 16 for 6 yards (30-C.Peerman; 81-T.Kroft). PENALTY on LA-50-C.Lynch, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LA 10. {Austin credited with 0 yard return due to the penalty}

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:12) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to LA 34, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 81%

    (10:01) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass incomplete short middle to 18-K.Britt.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 58%

    (6:31) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 33-R.Burkhead to LA 35 for 1 yard (55-J.Laurinaitis).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 15 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 85%

    (3:10) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass incomplete deep middle to 19-W.Welker (29-L.Hall) [96-C.Dunlap].

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:52) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to LA 20, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-W.Welker to LA 33 for 13 yards (19-B.Tate; 81-T.Kroft).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 35%

    (:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass short left to 19-W.Welker to CIN 39 for 6 yards (29-L.Hall).