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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to CIN 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 19-B.Tate to CIN 28 for 13 yards (44-J.McQuaide; 53-D.Bates). CIN-59-E.Lamur was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.11 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model