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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to LA 34, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.22 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 77, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model