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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(6:31) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 33-R.Burkhead to LA 35 for 1 yard (55-J.Laurinaitis).

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.52 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model