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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Mannion pass short left to 19-W.Welker to CIN 39 for 6 yards (29-L.Hall).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.89 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP