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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 47

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 6-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to CIN 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.72 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model