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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 80

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 5-J.Schum punts 44 yards to IND 36, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 80, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 37, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model