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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5-6 HC Lovie Smith
@
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Indianapolis Colts

6-5 HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2015-11-29 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

TB
45.2%
IND
54.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Matt Hasselbeck (IND): +0.121 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND defense: -0.003 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TB 21 14–28
–
IND 23 16–30
Projected margin: IND by 2 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 12

TB

George Johnson DE Out Calf
Keith Tandy S Out Concussion
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Doubtful Shoulder
Ali Marpet G Questionable Ankle
Josh Shirley DE Probable Calf
Evan Smith C Probable Knee

IND

Anthony Castonzo T Out Knee
Phillip Dorsett WR Out Ankle
Andrew Luck QB Out Abdomen
Mike Adams S Doubtful Ankle
Gregory Toler CB Questionable Groin
Erik Walden LB Questionable Foot
Vontae Davis CB Probable Hamstring
Jerrell Freeman LB Probable Rib
Frank Gore RB Probable Ankle
Sio Moore LB Probable Back
D'Joun Smith CB Probable Knee
Hugh Thornton G Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 12
–
IND 25

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:18 FG IND (8:18) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. TB 0 – IND 3
  • Q1 02:55 FG TB (2:55) 10-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 3 – IND 3
  • Q2 12:48 FG IND (12:48) 4-A.Vinatieri 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. TB 3 – IND 6
  • Q2 05:43 FG TB (5:43) 10-C.Barth 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 6 – IND 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD TB (2:00) (Run formation) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 84-C.Brate for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – IND 6
  • Q3 10:05 FG IND (10:05) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. TB 12 – IND 9
  • Q3 07:29 TD IND (7:29) (No Huddle) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – IND 15
  • Q3 01:07 FG IND (1:07) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. TB 12 – IND 19
  • Q4 05:58 TD IND (5:58) (Shotgun) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 13-T.Hilton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – IND 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 75%

    (8:18) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (2:55) 10-C.Barth 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (12:48) 4-A.Vinatieri 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (5:43) 10-C.Barth 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:48) 1-P.McAfee punts 57 yards to TB 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 43-B.Rainey to TB 24 for 7 yards (83-D.Allen).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:14) 5-J.Schum punts 44 yards to IND 36, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (10:05) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:39) 5-J.Schum punts 54 yards to IND 34, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-Q.Bray pushed ob at TB 46 for 20 yards (48-A.DePaola).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 64%

    (4:02) 10-C.Barth 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. PENALTY on TB-70-L.Mankins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 44.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 83%

    (1:07) 4-A.Vinatieri 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 19 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:32) 5-J.Schum punts 44 yards to IND 24, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 82%

    (3:52) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Brate (55-N.Irving).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:53) 1-P.McAfee punts 56 yards to TB 18, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-42-C.Geathers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 32%

    (:34) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to TB 6, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

    See the full breakdown →