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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 8

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.49 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model