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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 10-C.Barth 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. PENALTY on TB-70-L.Mankins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 44.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.91 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.99 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model